India’s $5 trillion economy goal could boost employment by 22% by 2028: ORF Report

As India steadily progresses towards its ambitious goal of achieving a $5 trillion economy, a recent report sheds light on the potential impact on employment dynamics in the country.

Released by the Observer Research Foundation, the ‘India Employment Outlook 2030’ report provides insights into the trends shaping India’s job market amidst geopolitical shifts, supply chain disruptions, and evolving sectoral landscapes.

Rising Opportunities

India’s $5 trillion economy aspirations could translate into a 22% surge in overall employment and a noteworthy 97 basis points decline in unemployment by 2028, as per the findings of the report.

This projection underscores the significant role of economic expansion in driving job creation and reducing unemployment rates across the nation.

Sectoral Analysis and Future Projections

A closer examination reveals that the youthful demographic dividend, coupled with substantial public and private investments, forms the cornerstone of India’s economic trajectory towards the $5 trillion milestone.

The report identifies sectors deemed aspirational by India’s young population aged between 18 and 35 as key drivers of future growth.

Within the realm of employment generation, the service sector emerges as a pivotal player, poised to catalyze substantial job opportunities in the coming years.

Specifically, the report identifies ten high-opportunity sub-sectors within the services domain, including digital services, financial services, healthcare, hospitality, consumer retail, e-commerce, and renewable energy, among others.

Manufacturing Challenges and Transition Opportunities

In contrast, the outlook for India’s manufacturing sector presents a more nuanced picture. Despite initiatives like Make in India and favorable cost structures, employment in the manufacturing sector faces headwinds due to technological advancements and automation.

However, the report suggests a strategic transition towards industrial value chains associated with the service sector to reignite employment growth in this domain.

Recommendations for Policymakers and Stakeholders

To navigate the evolving employment landscape, the report advocates for a collaborative approach involving policymakers, public sector schemes, and various stakeholders.

“Policymakers and public sector schemes could partner more closely with other stakeholders to identify employability and skilling gaps. The next step would be to upgrade curricula and skills to make India’s talent pool more industry ready”, says Nilanjan Ghosh, a Director at ORF and one of the report’s authors.

The report also emphasizes the need for proactive measures to bridge skill gaps, upgrade educational curricula, and foster entrepreneurship, particularly among the youth.

 “A new class of entrepreneurs could stimulate job creation, expand India’s startup ecosystem, spur innovation, and promote youth participation. But we also need to ensure that the workplaces of the future are gender-sensitive and inclusive,” added Ghosh.

In conclusion, the report underscores the importance of a multistakeholder approach in realizing India’s vision of a digitally empowered, skilled, and self-reliant economy.

By prioritizing skill development, entrepreneurship, and inclusivity, India can unlock the full potential of its burgeoning workforce and achieve sustainable economic growth in the years to come, says the report.